U.S. Sahm rule recession indicator 2022-2024
In March 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.3, a slight increase from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
