High demand for apartments drives up prices
The residential sector in Poland is still stable and safe for investing capital. In 2022, more than 238.5 thousand apartments were built, and more than 833 thousand were under construction. The value of sales on the real estate market amounted to nearly 192.7 billion zloty.The government's housing loan subsidy program has boosted demand for housing with a relatively low supply of new listings on the market. This directly translated into a spike in prices. By the end of 2023, residential prices increased by 13 percent yearly, with primary-market dwellings showing an increase of over 14 percent. In three cities (Warsaw, Gdańsk, Kraków), apartment prices in primary and secondary markets reached the 15 thousand zloty per square meter barrier, with Warsaw being the most expensive city in the country.
Poland has high homeownership rates, but rising housing prices and poor supply are causing more young people to rely on rentals or to live with their parents. This trend is particularly pronounced in large cities, where the rental market is becoming the only option for some.
Interest in modern warehouse space is growing
Unlike residential real estate, the commercial market in Poland has been resilient in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increased turnover of the e-commerce industry has significantly impacted the warehouse and logistics segment, making it a promising area for investment. In 2023, the e-commerce sector constituted 12 percent of the industrial real estate market in terms of demand. The commercial market is also showing signs of recovery, with the value of investments in commercial real estate surging by 61 percent, indicating a positive trend of growth and stability.Warsaw has the largest share of the office market in Poland. In 2023, 270 thousand square meters of space were under construction. Poland's capital city was characterized by the highest supply of office real estate and a relatively low vacancy rate. Warsaw was also the most expensive city in terms of lease price. One meter of office space cost from 12.5 to 27.3 euros in 2023.
In the near term, modern and well-connected large-scale logistics facilities will remain on the investor's radar. On the other hand, rising prices in the residential real estate market will increase interest in the private and institutional rental market.